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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.